India Braces for Below-Normal July Monsoon as IMD Flags 40% Rainfall Deficit; Centre Activates Contingency Plan Amid El Niño Threat
Fifth-driest June since 1901 raises concerns over kharif sowing, water availability and rural economy despite hopes of improved rainfall in early July
India is expected to receive below-normal rainfall during July, the country’s most crucial monsoon month, after recording one of its driest Junes in more than a century. The warning from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has heightened concerns over agriculture, reservoir levels, food inflation and rural livelihoods as the southwest monsoon struggles to recover from a weak start.
According to the IMD, the country ended June with a 40% rainfall deficit, receiving just 99.5 mm of rain against the normal 165.3 mm, making it the fifth-driest June since records began in 1901. July rainfall is now forecast to remain below 94% of the Long Period Average (LPA), although weather officials expect rainfall activity to improve over the next week, which could partially reduce the seasonal shortfall.
The weak monsoon has been linked to the strengthening El Niño phenomenon over the Pacific Ocean. El Niño typically suppresses rainfall over the Indian subcontinent by altering atmospheric circulation patterns and has historically been associated with drought years, lower crop production and higher food prices. Forecast models indicate that El Niño conditions are likely to intensify further during the remaining monsoon season.
Recognising the growing risks, the Central Government has activated contingency measures for hundreds of vulnerable districts, including preparations across 12 high-risk states where rainfall deficits and limited irrigation could significantly affect kharif cultivation. Agriculture and state authorities have been directed to implement district-level crop management plans, promote drought-resilient farming practices and ensure timely availability of seeds and irrigation support if rainfall remains inadequate.
The delayed arrival and sluggish advance of the southwest monsoon have already slowed the sowing of major kharif crops, including rice, cotton, maize and soybean. Farmers across several regions have postponed planting operations while waiting for sufficient soil moisture, raising concerns about crop yields if rainfall does not improve soon.
Meteorologists, however, have offered cautious optimism. Forecasts suggest that widespread rainfall is likely over parts of northwestern and central India during the first week of July, which could improve soil moisture and accelerate sowing activities. Even so, the IMD maintains that the overall monthly rainfall is expected to remain below normal, meaning agriculture and water resources will continue to face pressure throughout the season.
The impact of a prolonged rainfall deficit extends beyond agriculture. A weaker monsoon could reduce reservoir inflows, affect hydroelectric power generation, increase dependence on groundwater and place upward pressure on food prices. Lower rural incomes may also weigh on demand for consumer goods, making the progress of the monsoon a closely watched indicator for India’s broader economic outlook.
Climate experts note that while short spells of heavy rainfall may temporarily narrow the rainfall deficit, sustained and well-distributed precipitation will be essential during July and August to protect crop production and ensure adequate water storage. The coming weeks are therefore expected to be critical in determining both the success of the 2026 kharif season and the overall performance of India’s southwest monsoon.
